Friday, June 26, 2009

Premise behind the green shoots theory

The market is a curious creature, because it is always looking forward. The "green shoots" that the market has been seeing since mid-march of this year, was not because of the economy actually bouncing. However, it was shift in the second derivative. If you recall high school calculus, second derivative reaches an inflection point when there is a change in the "rate of change". That is a mouthful, but it boils down to the notion that "green shoots" are that the rate of decline of the economy has slowed down.

The crucial point is that the economy is still deteriorating, but it just is deteriorating less alarmingly.

Somehow that message was lost and is now ignored by the media. So when Warren Buffett came on TV and announced that the economy is still slowing down (which should be obvious to anyone who remembers the original premise of the second derivative); people freaked out. Someone even went as far and called him an "idiot" [later retracted].

Here is that aforementioned TV interview: