Sunday, July 04, 2010

Scaremongering in the foreground

I must say that I am disappointed at the New York Times for printing the following story. I am also disappointed at Canada's Globe and mail for syndicating it from the NYTimes.

... he said that no other forecaster was likely to accept his reasoning, which is based on his version of the Elliott Wave theory — a technical approach to market analysis that he embraces with evangelical fervor.

Originating in the writings of Ralph Nelson Elliott, an obscure accountant who found repetitive patterns, or “fractals,” in the stock market of the 1930s and ’40s, the theory suggests that an epic downswing is under way, Mr. Prechter said.

It seems (see bold statements above) that Robert Prechter is a technical analyst and obviously completely lacks the fundamental understanding of markets. Markets move up or down due to two primary reasons, 1) Expectations of the profits of the underlying businesses, or 2) actual profits of the underlying businesses.

Stock chart reading, otherwise more politely known as, technical analysis is akin to astrology, tarrot cards or psychic readings.

Many people believe in it, but it doesn't make it true.